
Commentary by Albert R. Hunt
June 30 (Bloomberg) -- Janell Mader and Sheryl Randoll are undecided American voters, and Barack Obama has to show them he has the right stuff to lead the country.
The encouraging news for the Democratic nominee is that these two York, Pennsylvania, voters, both of whom backed President George W. Bush in 2004, are persuadable. They were among a dozen people -- mostly Hillary Clinton supporters or Republicans -- who gathered for a two-hour focus-group discussion on the election, moderated by pollster Peter Hart.
Mader and Randoll say they need to hear more about what Obama would do, and they worry about his inexperience, especially in contrast to Republican John McCain. Yet they want the senator from Illinois to provide that reassurance.
``We do need change,'' says Randoll, a 51-year-old single mother and pharmaceutical saleswoman. ``I don't want change because of the rhetoric of change, but I think that something needs to be done differently.''
``Most of my life, my decisions have been based on morals and family values,'' says Mader, a 32-year-old homemaker. ``Now, all of a sudden, our country is, like, turned upside down with all these economic issues.''
In listening to these citizens; glancing at the polls, especially last week's Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times survey; and talking to politicians in several swing states, the national election feels like 1980: Voters think the country is in terrible shape and want real change, but are unsure whether the standard-bearer for the insurgent party is ready for the challenge.
Reagan Reassured Voters
Twenty-eight years ago, voters remained unconvinced until a couple of weeks before the election, when Ronald Reagan provided the reassurance they were seeking.
There are differences this time; McCain isn't the incumbent president, and race wasn't an issue in 1980. One of the Democrats at the York focus group, Charles Fasano, a 56- year-old apprentice mortician, is a Democrat who can't abide Obama: ``His middle name is Hussein. I don't trust Obama.''
Most of the other voters were less suspicious, a majority even eager to end up in the Obama camp if, as pollster Hart says, he can put ``more meat on the bone.''
Of the seven Clinton supporters, five say they're very likely to vote for Obama, 46, in November; one is on the fence; and only Fasano is going for McCain, 71, an Arizona senator. That is reflected in the Bloomberg/L.A. Times poll, too.
McCain Admired
It isn't that these citizens dislike McCain. When Hart asks them which of the candidates they would prefer to carry the American flag into the Beijing Olympics or to lead a lost party out of the forest, overwhelmingly they say McCain. Even partisan Democrats admire him.
They just don't identify him with any issues except the Iraq War, and his Republican Party carries a huge burden. When Bush comes up -- a majority of these people voted for him four years ago -- the contempt is palpable, with words like ``horrible'' and ``worst ever'' rolling off their tongues.
The Bloomberg survey last week shows the president's approval rating at 23 percent, or about where Richard Nixon was during Watergate; by a 6-to-1 margin, people think the country is on the wrong track, again Watergate-level numbers.
As reflected in the Pennsylvania focus group, Americans genuinely believe the country has gone downhill. Asked whether they are better off economically than when Bush took office -- a reprise of an old Reagan question -- only 9 percent said they were, according to the Bloomberg poll.
Randoll has three kids, two in college, and she ventures that she doesn't ``see them as being as successful even as I was, and I'm not as successful even as my father was.''
Hot Dogs and Beans
Across the table, Mader echoes the feeling: ``We're comfortable right now, but I don't want to be eating hot dogs and beans'' just to send her 4-year-old to college.
They aren't sold on Obama. ``He needs to show me that he has the intelligence and people around him to make a difference globally,'' says Randoll. Mader worries that under a President Obama, America would be tested by other countries, even ``possibly open to attack due to his inexperience.''
And Obama's wife, Michelle, draws protests, with about half the group angry about her quote that this is the first time she's been ``proud'' of her country.
The Obama campaign's private research shows that the public has the same misgivings about Michelle Obama as does this group.
Two weeks ago, when the campaign made a series of personnel announcements, much of the attention was given to the clumsy selection of Hillary Clinton's former campaign manager, Patti Solis Doyle, to be chief of staff for Obama's yet-to-be- named running mate.
Cutter is Key
More important was the decision to tap veteran Democratic strategist Stephanie Cutter to be Michelle Obama's chief of staff; that suggests Mrs. Obama appreciates the challenge that lies ahead.
The Pennsylvanians see much to admire in Obama. Randoll likes the fact that he's ``charismatic and a good speaker,'' adding that the country has suffered because Bush isn't. (And while she likes McCain, she's adamant about the need to end the war: ``It can't go on for four more years.'') Mader also says Obama is a great speaker but says he needs more.
``He's going to have to get to the point and say, `Alright, I'm for change. This is what I'm going to do to change America.''' She particularly wants more clarity on the economy and health care.
For the past few weeks, Obama has been acting like a front-runner, inexplicably rejecting a chance to have weekly forums with a man a quarter-century older in a country clamoring for change. He would do well to remember that Reagan pulled away in 1980 when he threw aside caution and agreed to debate with President Jimmy Carter.
(Albert R. Hunt is the executive editor for Washington at Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own.)
To contact the writer of this column: Albert R. Hunt in Washington at ahunt1@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: June 29, 2008 09:53 EDT
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