Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Carlsberg A/S, the world’s fourth- largest brewer, cut its full-year sales forecast, saying the Russian market will contract more than it expected this year.

Revenue in 2009 will be between 59 billion kroner ($11.7 billion) and 60 billion kroner, the Valby, Denmark-based company said today in a statement, down from a previous forecast of 61 billion kroner. Carlsberg also reported third-quarter profit that missed analysts’ estimates, and maintained its forecast for full-year net income of “at least” 3.5 billion kroner.

Russia’s plan to triple the excise duty on beer in 2010 will “clearly affect the beer market negatively,” the brewer said. Carlsberg gained full control of Russia leader OAO Baltika Breweries last year after buying partner Scottish & Newcastle Plc’s interest. The company said today it boosted its market share in the country to 40.9 percent from 38.7 percent.

“Recent trends in the Russian beer market have been poor,” Matthew Webb, an analyst at Cazenove & Co. in London, said in a note today. “Given the uncertainty over excise duties, we would concede that the trends are not encouraging.” Webb rates the shares “outperform.”

Carlsberg fell the most since Oct. 2 in Copenhagen trading, closing down 19.25 kroner, or 5.3 percent, to 341.25 kroner. The shares have doubled in value this year.

Contracting Market

Carlsberg, which has moved Baltika’s sales mix to more higher-margin, mid-priced brews and away from its cheapest brands, said the Russian market contracted 10 percent in the first nine months of the year. The rate of decline will be same for the full year, it said. Previously, Carlsberg had a forecast of 5 percent to 6 percent market contraction for 2009.

Russia’s government has proposed a draft bill that would triple the excise duty on beer in 2010 and increase taxes by a further 11 percent in 2011 and 20 percent in 2012.

The proposal is “highly illogical” as it will favor liquor producers over the beer industry, Chief Executive Officer Joergen Buhl Rasmussen said in a telephone conference. The brewer is compiling “scenario plans” and is “well-prepared” for any outcome on the Russian tax, he said.

Carlsberg has a 24 percent slice of the central and eastern European beer market, according to an Oct. 19 report from Standard & Poor’s. That’s more than world leader Anheuser-Busch InBev NV’s 17 percent, Heineken’s 14 percent and SABMiller Plc’s 13 percent, according to the report.

Carlsberg’s third-quarter net income increased 22 percent to 1.49 billion kroner from 1.22 billion kroner a year earlier, the company said today. That missed the 1.63 billion-kroner median estimate of 10 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Sales declined 11 percent to 16.4 billion kroner.

Carlsberg said it had achieved savings of 725 million kroner from the Scottish & Newcastle acquisition as of Sept. 30, and said integration progresses as planned.

To contact the reporter on this story: Christian Wienberg in Copenhagen at cwienberg@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: November 4, 2009 11:08 EST