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Albert R. Hunt
‘Sam’s Club’ Republican Pawlenty Bids for 2012: Albert R. Hunt

Commentary by Albert R. Hunt


Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The Democrats ended their presidential hiatus in 1992 and 2008 with a similar formula: Nominate a candidate not associated with Washington’s wars, who doesn’t belong to the party’s ideological base though is acceptable to it, and who can attract independent voters.

It is a formula Republicans would do well to replicate next time. If so, there is an aspirant who may fit the bill: Tim Pawlenty. Tim Pawlenty? For the uninformed, he is the two- term Republican governor of Minnesota.

He doesn’t excite Republican passions like Sarah Palin, or bring the intellectual range of Newt Gingrich, the down-home humor of Mike Huckabee or the resources of Mitt Romney. He also brings none of their baggage, has a consistently conservative record, presents his views in a less-confrontational and more measured way, and has succeeded in a Democratic state.

Pawlenty “has respect from people on both sides of the aisle, and if he can win a primary, would have formidable appeal in a general election,” says Rick Davis, who managed John McCain’s presidential run last year. “There is no heir- apparent, which opens it up for people like Tim.”

The 48-year-old old Pawlenty hasn’t escaped national attention. He was the runner-up to Palin as McCain’s choice of a running mate last year, according to “The Battle for America, 2008,” Dan Balz and Haynes Johnson’s definitive book on the presidential election.

Embracing the Rich

He has built a reputation as a blue-collar conservative -- his dad was a truck driver, and associates say he’s much more comfortable hunting or fishing with his pals than hobnobbing with the rich and powerful. He advocates a more modern, inclusive Republican Party -- a “party of Sam’s Club, not just the country club” -- that stresses lower taxes and entrepreneurial initiatives while eschewing divisive and exclusive politics and policies.

He wants to run for president in 2012 and this fall will establish a federal political action committee to finance trips around the country. He’ll then have to start spending more time with wealthy donors as well as grassroots Republicans.

Although a big-tent Republican, he has impeccable conservative credentials. He is an evangelical Christian and has been happily married for 22 years to the same spouse, who even Democrats say is a political asset. He is consistently anti- abortion, pro-gun on the Second Amendment and against gay marriage.

Tax-Cut Fervor

He brings an almost Jack Kemp-like fervor to cutting marginal tax rates; an important predicate for any presidential run may be how Pawlenty handles a recommendation from a task force he appointed that the state replace some corporate and individual taxes with consumption levies.

His emphasis on taxes rankles many Minnesota Democrats. “There is a long line of progressive Republican governors in Minnesota who are big supporters of education,” says Walter Mondale, the former vice president and U.S. senator. “He is much more interested in tax-cutting and has broken with that tradition.”

Still, unlike a Palin or a Gingrich or other right-wing Republicans, Pawlenty doesn’t use social issues to bash opponents and is open to moderate reforms of immigration laws, which is anathema to many in the conservative movement. His focus is much more on the economy, energy, education and, especially now, health care.

Pawlenty has been a vocal critic of President Barack Obama’s health-care plans, offering some substantive critiques on the notion of a “public option,” and other mandates that will increase the cost for states.

Pandering to Right

He also panders some to the party’s right wing, by claiming there’s a basis to the fraudulent charges that “death panels” will be set up to decide whether elderly people receive care, and that the Obama plan will result in rationing “that could lead to people getting different treatments.” Americans already get different levels of treatment, rationed in part by wealth and costs.

On health care and the economy, he’s sketchy about what he would do. As a national candidate, he’d have to offer more beef. One area on which he happily elaborates is why Minnesota has more effective medical care than Massachusetts, which he says has expanded access at the price of out-of-control costs. This isn’t a casual aside; it’s aimed directly at Romney, since the Massachusetts plan was adopted under his governorship.

As the Pawlenty camp looks at the political landscape for 2012, they see Huckabee and possibly Palin vying for the vote of the movement right in the Republican Party. If Pawlenty catches on, he would then compete with Romney for more mainstream party members.

No Easy Task

He knows this will be an exceedingly difficult task. For starters, he’s spent his whole political life in one of the cleanest-government states in the country and never had to compete in the fundraising travails of national politics. He also lacks personal wealth.

For all his success in a Democratic-leaning state, there are no Pawlenty coattails. When he took office after the 2002 election, Republicans controlled the state house of representatives, 81-52; today Democrats enjoy an 87-47 majority. The Democrats also added to their majority in the Senate and picked up two statewide elected offices during the Pawlenty years.

Moreover, the history of the modern Republican Party suggests the nomination goes to the better-known, most- established heir-apparent -- Richard Nixon, Bob Dole, both Bushes and even McCain last year -- or the candidate who brings real ideological fervor, such as Barry Goldwater or Ronald Reagan.

Pawlenty acknowledges he’s neither. “When you are potentially running for president, in recent times, it tends to favor people who are wealthy, have a shtick or have some fame. I have none of those.”

The national Republicans could do worse than Pawlenty. They probably will.

(Albert R. Hunt is the executive editor for Washington at Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this column: Albert R. Hunt in Washington at ahunt1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: August 30, 2009 00:01 EDT

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