Ben Emons

Managing Director:Fixed Income

Ben Emons is the founder of FedWatch Advisors, a firm specialized in analysis and investing around the Fed. Previously he was associated with NewEdge Wealth as head of fixed income and Medley Global Advisors as Managing Director of Global Macro Strategy. The opinions expressed are his own.

Latest

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Bloomberg Opinion

Volatility Doesn't Come Without Economic Consequences

Big swings in financial markets can affect confidence, causing companies and consumers to curtail spending.

February 13, 2018

February 13, 2018

OpinionBen Emons

Volatility Doesn't Come Without Economic Consequences

Big swings in financial markets can affect confidence, causing companies and consumers to curtail spending.

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January 31, 2018

January 31, 2018

OpinionBen Emons

When the Fed Talks Price-Level Targets, Markets Should Shudder

Neither bonds nor equities are pricing in much of a premium for the prospect of faster inflation, increasing the risk of a correction.

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January 9, 2018

January 9, 2018

OpinionBen Emons

Dollar May Hold the Key to the Global Rally in Stocks

A resurgence in the U.S. currency can tighten financial conditions and reverse some of the good spirits currently embedded in global markets.

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December 29, 2017

December 29, 2017

OpinionBen Emons

Return of Volatility Foreshadowed In Economic Data

History shows that divergences between economic and financial market volatility only last for brief periods.

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December 14, 2017

December 14, 2017

OpinionBen Emons

Corporate Bonds Sour on the Republican Tax Plan

Debt investor skepticism contrasts with the general notion among economists that companies with large amounts of leverage will benefit.

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December 6, 2017

December 6, 2017

OpinionBen Emons

Europe's Yield Curve May Hold Key to Markets in 2018

A narrowing gap between short- and long-term rates should provide a boost to risk assets and the economy.

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November 22, 2017

November 22, 2017

OpinionBen Emons

Dollar Hoarding Is a Year-End Risk for Markets

The effect may be more pronounced this year as tensions around the U.S. debt ceiling and competing tax bills cause the greenback to appreciate.

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November 13, 2017

November 13, 2017

OpinionBen Emons

The One Yield Curve That Should Concern Powell

Overnight index swaps suggest the economy will be weak enough a year from now to warrant rate cuts.

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November 3, 2017

November 3, 2017

OpinionBen Emons

Bond Outlook Gets Gloomier in Forward Rate Markets

The next bear market is likely to be characterized by a slow grind to very low returns rather than a sudden sell-off.

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October 26, 2017

October 26, 2017

OpinionBen Emons

Rule-Based Monetary Policies Will Keep Volatility Low

When central bankers are predictable, there tend to be fewer surprises for markets.

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October 17, 2017

October 17, 2017

OpinionBen Emons

Bond Market Bubbles Exist If You Know Where to Look

There are two potential trouble spots: U.S. investment-grade corporate debt and European government securities.

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October 9, 2017

October 9, 2017

OpinionBen Emons

Currency Convertibility Is Back as a Risk in European Bonds

Markets see a risk that Catalonia may inspire populist movements across Europe, threatening the euro.

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September 28, 2017

September 28, 2017

OpinionBen Emons

Inflation Is No Mystery to the Bond Market

Periods of slow inflation often lead to bouts of faster inflation, just like when energy prices bottomed in early 2016.

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September 21, 2017

September 21, 2017

OpinionBen Emons

Bond Tantrums Should Be Considered Good Economic Omens

Rising debt yields that reflect stronger economic growth may actually function as an “easing” for equities.

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September 13, 2017

September 13, 2017

OpinionBen Emons

Fed Leadership Changes May Bring a GDP-Focused Agenda

A makeover at the central bank is on the horizon, and it may be bigger than the market currently discounts.

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September 8, 2017

September 8, 2017

OpinionBen Emons

The Simple Reason Why Buy the Dip Rules Investor Behavior

Since the 1990s, the assumption has been that when things get bad, central banks will come to the rescue.

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August 31, 2017

August 31, 2017

OpinionBen Emons

What a Strong Euro Means for the U.S. Debt Ceiling Debate

There's a risk the greenback will "overshoot" on the downside, creating a crisis of confidence.

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August 23, 2017

August 23, 2017

OpinionBen Emons

The Shape of the Phillips Curve Should Worry Markets

Inflation may not be as stable as generally believed, and the bigger risk may be disinflation.

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August 15, 2017

August 15, 2017

OpinionBen Emons

When Risk-Off Dominates Markets, Economies Usually Suffer

When risk is not measurable, the distribution of possible outcomes is highly uncertain.

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August 8, 2017

August 8, 2017

OpinionBen Emons

What Greenspan Gets Wrong -- and Right -- About Bubbles

Corporate debt and German bunds may be the most at risk from a sell-off.

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