No, the Iranian Oil Industry Isn’t About to 'Explode'
The US naval blockade is unlikely to result in the destruction of Iran’s oil industry.
Photographer: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images
If US President Donald Trump is right, the Iranian oil industry should be imploding by now. On April 26, he predicted the country’s wells would “explode” in a “very powerful” destructive process starting in three days. That’s today. Considering oil is central to the war, one would hope Trump has his facts right. Unfortunately, he doesn’t.
Trump has gambled that the US naval blockade, which began more than two weeks ago, would stop Tehran’s tankers from reaching the high seas, depriving the regime of at least $175 million a day in oil export revenue. Unable to ship its crude, Iran would soon run out of storage, forcing the Islamic Republic to close the taps. Crucially, the president is convinced that shutting the wells would damage them irreparably. “When it explodes, you can never, regardless, you can never rebuild it the way it was,” he told Fox News in an interview, adding that capacity would be reduced to “about 50% of what it is right now.”