Tim Duy

Professor:Practice

Tim Duy is a professor of practice and senior director of the Oregon Economic Forum at the University of Oregon and the author of Tim Duy's Fed Watch.

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Powell And Mnuchin Testify Before House Financial Services Committee

Bloomberg Opinion

How the Fed Will Respond to the Coming Inflation Scare

The central bank is likely to view what will surely be signs of price shocks as transitory.

December 30, 2020

December 30, 2020

How the Fed Will Respond to the Coming Inflation Scare

The central bank is likely to view what will surely be signs of price shocks as transitory.

Powell And Mnuchin Testify Before House Financial Services Committee

December 1, 2020

December 1, 2020

Get Ready for a Supercharged Economy

Excess savings have supported households in 2020, and rising wages will boost them next year.

Job Growth Spurs Drop In Unemployment Rate To 4.7 Percent

November 11, 2020

November 11, 2020

Biden Is Stepping Into a Dream Economic Scenario

This recovery will be nothing like the last one, which was marked by many years of slow growth.

Unemployment Slips To 5.9 Percent In November

October 21, 2020

October 21, 2020

The Lack of Fiscal Aid Won't Wreck Consumer Spending

Savings rates suggest U.S. households should be able to maintain their recent pace of consumption even without another round of stimulus.

New York Region Sees 40% Bankruptcy Surge, Braces For More

October 1, 2020

October 1, 2020

Does Jobs Report Even Matter Anymore?

The central bank’s new focus on inflation means the once-vaunted monthly employment data is almost worth ignoring.

US-HEALTH-VIRUS

September 16, 2020

September 16, 2020

Fed's New Policy Approach Needs Some More Explaining

The central bank’s unwillingness to accelerate the pace of the recovery may at first glance appear disappointing.

Virtual Speakers During Federal Reserve Jackson Hole Economic Symposium

August 28, 2020

August 28, 2020

The Federal Reserve’s New Strategy Comes With Major Risks

Too many questions about the central bank's intentions and policy framework have been left unanswered.

Virtual Speakers During Federal Reserve Jackson Hole Economic Symposium

August 21, 2020

August 21, 2020

The Forgotten $1 Trillion Supporting the Economy

The key provisions of the CARES Act have mostly expired, but they have given a big boost to consumer savings.

Farmers' Markets Provide Lifelines To Both Growers And Shoppers

August 10, 2020

August 10, 2020

More Long Bonds From the U.S.? Not a Problem for the Fed

The central bank has the tools necessary to keep yields from rising due to the increased supply of debt.

Fed Chair Powell Holds Video News Conference Following FOMC Rate Decision

July 29, 2020

July 29, 2020

The Fed Is Juggling Stimulus Past and Future

Monetary policy is stuck between the emergency actions of this spring and the rollout of a new strategy and tools this fall.

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin Testifies Before House On Departments Response To Pandemic

July 23, 2020

July 23, 2020

The Fed May Not Recognize Inflation Until It's Too Late

The central bank has a history of being behind the curve.

Federal Reserve Exterior As Fed Looks Locked In For Quarter-Point Cut

July 17, 2020

July 17, 2020

The Fed Is Setting the Stage for a Major Policy Change

Policy makers have begun talking about letting the inflation rate rise above its 2% target. Look for a formal statement soon.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell Livestreams FOMC Statement

July 8, 2020

July 8, 2020

The Fed Will Soon Embrace Yield-Curve Control

The central bank may have its doubts now about the strategy, but a worsening economy will force its hand.

Federal Reserve Exterior As Fed Looks Locked In For Quarter-Point Cut

June 15, 2020

June 15, 2020

Fed's Powell Can Send a Forceful Message to Congress

Don’t underestimate the central bank’s commitment to the current pace of asset purchases.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Holds Video News Conference Following FOMC Rate Decision

June 8, 2020

June 8, 2020

Don't Be Fooled by Stocks. The Economy Needs More Aid.

Even though employers unexpectedly added jobs in May, the percentage of unemployed not on temporary layoff surged.

U.S. Unemployment Rate Unchanged Despite Signs Of Economic Recovery

May 21, 2020

May 21, 2020

For Markets, It's the Economy's Direction That Matters

Everyone knows the recession will be deep. But the question is whether the broad data is showing incremental improvement.

3.2 Million File Unemployment Claims As Economy Reels From COVID-19 Pandemic

May 7, 2020

May 7, 2020

There's Plenty of Room for Bulls and Bears

The optimists in the stock market are focusing on the direction of economic activity, and the pessimists are stuck on the level of activity.

After Stocks Take A Wild Ride, U.S. Markets Open To A New Week

April 28, 2020

April 28, 2020

The Fed Will Soon Need to Stem Deflation

It won’t be long before the central bank begins to acknowledge the fallout from declining wage rates and salaries on the economy.

Federal Reserve Lowers Key Rate By Three Quarters Of A Point

April 6, 2020

April 6, 2020

Three Things Will Determine If There’s an Economic Depression

Depth, duration and deflation will determine whether the economy bounces back quickly or stays in a prolonged downturn.

An employee cleans up trash on the floor of the New York Sto

April 2, 2020

April 2, 2020

This Silent Job Killer Is an Underrated Threat to the Economy

Refraining from hiring workers can be more devastating than laying them off.

Hiring Gains Drop Unemployment Rate To 7.7 Percent