Claudia Sahm

Chief Economist

Claudia Sahm is the chief economist at New Century Advisors and a former Federal Reserve economist. She is the creator of the Sahm rule, a recession indicator.

Latest

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Bloomberg Opinion

Warsh Should Know That Fighting Unemployment Is Also the Fed’s Job

April 29, 2026

April 29, 2026

OpinionClaudia Sahm

Warsh Should Know That Fighting Unemployment Is Also the Fed’s Job

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April 3, 2026

April 3, 2026

OpinionClaudia Sahm

The US Labor Market Is Still in a Vulnerable Place

Inside A Job News USA Career Fair As Jobless Claims Figures Are Released

March 4, 2026

March 4, 2026

OpinionClaudia Sahm

Jack Dorsey Is Wrong: Pro-Worker AI Is Possible

House Committees Confront Tech CEOs Over Online Spread Of False Info

December 1, 2025

December 1, 2025

OpinionClaudia Sahm

$2,000 Tariff Checks Are a Good Idea Badly Planned

President Trump Holds "Make America Wealthy Again Event" In White House Rose Garden

November 5, 2025

November 5, 2025

OpinionClaudia Sahm

How the Fed Can Change the K-Shaped Economy

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August 27, 2025

August 27, 2025

OpinionClaudia Sahm

The Fed Shouldn’t Take the Political Bait

The central bank can’t win a fight with the White House, but it can and should do a better job explaining its role.

Swearing In Ceremony For Confirmed Federal Reserve Officials

August 8, 2025

August 8, 2025

OpinionClaudia Sahm

The BLS Can’t Be Replaced by the Private Sector

Government statistical agencies provide breadth and context that private firms can’t match.

The Department Of Labor As Jobless Claims Poised for Historic Surge Amid Virus Layoffs

July 18, 2025

July 18, 2025

OpinionClaudia Sahm

Grow the Economy? Not With These Immigration Restrictions

The new budget law counts on better economic growth to help increase revenue, but a shrinking workforce will make that difficult.

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June 3, 2025

June 3, 2025

OpinionClaudia Sahm

Inflation Expectations Are Now Just Tariff Expectations

As the Fed watches for signs that inflation may be persistent, a crucial factor will be how consumers see tariffs affecting prices.

Inside A Home Depot Ahead Of Durable Goods Figures Release

April 17, 2025

April 17, 2025

OpinionClaudia Sahm

DOGE’s Ban on WFH Will Reduce Government Efficiency

The data show that allowing employees to work remotely for some of the time increases productivity and improves retention.

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March 11, 2025

March 11, 2025

OpinionClaudia Sahm

The War on Government Statistics Has Quietly Begun

What the elimination of an obscure advisory committee on economic data says about the administration’s commitment to relevance and accuracy.

Fed Chair Powell Delivers Semiannual Monetary Policy Report To Congress

January 30, 2025

January 30, 2025

OpinionClaudia Sahm

Even Talking About Tariffs Can Cause Inflation

Repeated threats of tariffs are making consumers nervous and putting the US economy at risk.

US-Mexico Border Crossings As Trump Threatens Tariffs And Deportations

November 25, 2024

November 25, 2024

OpinionClaudia Sahm

Economic Advice for Trump and Powell: First, Do No Harm

The US economy has become more dynamic over the last few years, and the main goal for the president-elect and the chair of the Federal Reserve should be to keep it that way.

President Trump Announces Nominee For Federal Reserve Chair Of The Board Of Governors

October 7, 2024

October 7, 2024

OpinionClaudia Sahm

America’s Jobs Market Has Entered the Twilight Zone

Companies aren’t so worried that they’re letting a lot of people go, but they’re also not so confident that they’re hiring a lot of people.

November Jobs Report Shows Pace Of New Jobs Decreasing Slightly

September 3, 2024

September 3, 2024

OpinionClaudia Sahm

The Jobs Numbers Went Down, But Trust in Them Shouldn’t

When government agencies revise their data, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics did last month, it usually means they have more reliable information.

U.S. Economy Adds More Jobs Than Expected In May

August 7, 2024

August 7, 2024

OpinionClaudia Sahm

My Recession Rule Was Meant to Be Broken

The Sahm rule indicates that the US is in the midst of a downturn, but it’s not quite there yet.

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June 3, 2024

June 3, 2024

OpinionClaudia Sahm

Inflation Feels Bad No Matter How You Define It

Rising prices make Americans gloomy about the economy, even if they're not climbing as fast as they used to.

Shoppers Following Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index Figures Release

April 25, 2024

April 25, 2024

OpinionClaudia Sahm

A Strong Economy Doesn’t Necessarily Make the Fed’s Job Harder

The past year has shown that it is possible to have a rapid decrease in inflation along with low unemployment and robust growth.

Federal Reserve As Rate Cut Path Likely to Be Slow

April 3, 2024

April 3, 2024

OpinionClaudia Sahm

The Surge in Part-Time Workers Is Getting a Bad Rap

The implication is that these jobs are of lower quality, so the labor market is not as strong as the top-line numbers suggest. Such views are misguided.

Job Seekers At A Career Fair Ahead Of Jobless Claims Figures

March 27, 2024

March 27, 2024

OpinionClaudia Sahm

Stop Applying My Recession Rule to Individual States

Rising unemployment rates in places such as California, New York and New Jersey may seem dire but actually reflect economic strength.

Economy Continues To Add Jobs, As Unemployment Rate Drops To 3.5 Percent